Anchor — what you are solving against
$
m
$m
$m
Market cap—
Enterprise value—
EV / sales—
Value drivers — the six that move the number
$m
%
%
%
% of ΔS
% of ΔS

Pick an archetype to load typical investment rates. Both rates are spent per dollar of new sales, not total sales.

Solve — hold five, back into the sixth
%/yr
yrs
Market-implied sales growth
—
—
Forecast cash flow Residual value
Incr. ROIC—
Threshold margin—
Value of growth—

—

Expectations infrastructure — where to spend the research budget

Each driver moved ±1 percentage point around the solved expectation, holding the rest. Share of total sensitivity is on the right — it is the honest allocation of your reading time.

Expectations gap — your view against the price
Bear
Base
Bull
Growth %
Margin %
Years
Probability
Value
—
—
—
Price
Expected
Expected value—
Expectations gap—
Prob. weight—